Excerpt from a session of ExecuNet Master Class, What Top CEOs and Investors Are Asking in 2017, in which one of the top wealth management strategists in the country, Dan Skelly, Executive Director of Morgan Stanley, spoke with ExecuNet about the state of the economy.
Dan was optimistic on the state of the market and suggested economists should look adopt a more forward-looking lens. Here’s some of what he had to say. Be sure to listen to the excerpt to hear Dan explain in greater detail.
It’s very rare to see a 20-30% drop in the absence of recession. In the last 100 years there have only been two or three 20% drops outside of recession, so because we don’t see a recession in the next 6-12 months, the worst we forecast are routine 5-10% dips stemming from geopolitical announcements or disappointment in tax policy. A lot of investors are looking at a 15-20 year history of weak secular trends in the demographic picture and the boom bust cycle we had in commodities in China. But it’s important to look forward. The Millennial generation will be larger than the Baby Boomers and just coming into their peak spending years in the next 5-10 years. The Millennials will make a positive impact, particularly in real estate. That plus easing of regulatory burdens on small businesses speak to a positive near future.
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